Tuesday, January 30, 2018

Orange County Market Update

2017 has come to a close and we are moving very quickly into 2018.   Below is a quick look at how the market finished up in 2017.  Low inventory was the major story for 2017 and looks to be the same in 2018.   
  • The active listing inventory increased by 67 homes in the past two weeks and now totals 3,774. Expect the inventory to increase from now through mid-Summer. Last year, there were 4,320 homes on the market, 546 more than today.        
  • There are 25% fewer homes on the market below $500,000 today compared to last year at this time and demand is down by 28%. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is slowly disappearing. 
  • Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, skyrocketed in the past two weeks by adding an additional 317 pending sells, up 22%. The average pending price is $902,385.
  • The average list price for all of Orange County remained at $1.8 million over the past two weeks. This number is high due to the mix of homes in the luxury ranges that sit on the market and do not move as quickly as the lower end.
  • For homes priced below $750,000, the market is HOT with an expected market time of just 40 days. This range represents 37% of the active inventory and 59% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 55 days, a hot seller’s market (fewer than 60 days). This range represents 17% of the active inventory and 20% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 68 days, a slight seller’s market (between 60 and 90 days)
  • For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time dropped from 157 days to 112. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time decreased from 188 to 145 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 285 days to 221 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time fell from 695 to 355 days.
  • The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 37% of the inventory and only 13% of demand.
  • The expected market time for all homes in Orange County dropped from 77 days to 64 in the past two weeks, a slight seller’s market (60 to 90 days). From here, we can expect the market time to drop dramatically through mid-February
Summary of Expected Market Time

  • Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, make up only 1.2% of all listings and 2.2% of demand. There are only 15 foreclosures and 32 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, that’s 47 total distressed homes on the active market, dropping by 3 in the past two weeks and reaching its lowest level since the very beginning of the Great Recession. Last year there were 91 total distressed sales, 74% more than today.
  • There were 2,269 closed residential resales in December, down by 9% from December 2016’s 2,484 closed sales. December marked a 6.5% drop from November 2017. The sales to list price ratio was 97.3% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.8% of all closed sales and short sales accounted for 0.9%. That means that 98.3% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

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As noted above, inventory continues to drive the market.  However that does not mean there are not deals to be head.  We keep a list of off-market properties on hand that may be just what you are looking for, so please do not hesitate to contact me with with any questions,

For a full copy of this report, including market graphs and neighborhood information, click here

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