Thursday, June 20, 2019

Is Now the Most Lucrative time to Sell a home?

It is that time of the year for the family vacation. That includes airports, long lines at the TSA checkpoint, connections, and a bit of stress and anxiety. Inevitably, countless travelers with kids in tow will find themselves running to their connecting flight. The sense of urgency is intense. As if to mock the situation, the flight crew announces, “LAST CALL for flight 93!” Frantically many will barely make it, gasping for air while boarding the plane. Still others will arrive at the gate only to find that the “cabin door has been closed.”

This is also the time of year when many sellers come on the market thinking they have an ample amount of time to market their home to take advantage of the Summer Market, but that simply is not the case. Yes, summer has just begun, but the Summer Market for housing already started in May. The housing market shifts from away from the Spring Market with the distractions of the end of the school year, especially graduations. From there, the distractions of summer and the family activities take hold: family vacations, trips to the beach, trips to the pool, family reunions, summer camps, and picnics. Life gets in the way for many that are looking to purchase a home. As a result, housing downshifts from the best time of the year to sell, the spring, to the second-best time of the year, summer. 

Right around the corner is the Autumn Market. For housing, that begins as soon as the kids go back to school, which is the end of August. As soon as school starts, it is no longer the most advantageous time of the year to move a family. As a result, many buyers put searching for a home on hold until the following year. Once school starts, it is just too disruptive for a family move. Changing schools is out of the question for too many families; it is just too disruptive. So, buyers want to close escrow by the end of August. Most escrow are between 30 to 45 days, meaning they need to open escrow by the end of July.

Orange County Housing Summary
  • The active listing inventory increased by 14 homes in the past two weeks, nearly unchanged, and now totals 7,493, the highest level since September 2014. Last year, there were 6,105 homes on the market, 1,388 fewer than today. There are 23% more homes than last year.
  • Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 15 pending sales in the past two-weeks, up 1%, and now totals 2,661. Last year, there were 2,699 pending sales, 1% more than today.
  • The Expected Market Time for all of Orange County decreased from 85 days two weeks ago to 84 days today, a slight Seller’s Market (between 60 to 90 days) and the highest level for this time of the year since 2011. It was at 68 days last year.

  • For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a slight Seller’s Market (between 60 and 90 days) with an expected market time of 61 days. This range represents 39% of the active inventory and 54% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 70 days, a slight Seller’s Market. This range represents 18% of the active inventory and 22% of demand.
  • For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 92 days, a Balanced Market.
  • For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time increased from 107 to 118 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 167 to 149 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 302 to 254 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 419 to 441 days. • The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 34% of the inventory and only 16% of demand.
  • Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.7% of all listings and 1.4% of demand. There are only 21 foreclosures and 32 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 53 total distressed homes on the active market, down 12 in the last two-weeks. Last year there were 50 total distressed homes on the market, nearly identical to today.
  • There were 2,929 closed residential resales in May, 2% more than May 2018’s 2,870 closed sales. April marked a 15% increase from April 2019. The sales to list price ratio was 97.6% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.8% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.6%. That means that 98.6% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

What's the Value of my Orange County Home?

With all seriousness, if your goal is to move this year, we need to talk today! With the low interest rates and increase in inventory the opportunity to sell now and purchase your move up property has a golden opportunity.  But the window is short before.  Don't hesitate to contact me for a confidential review of your goals.  Whether it is this year or next, developing a plan of action is key to getting your home sold for Top Dollar!

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